Greenhouse gas emission reduction represented by carbon dioxide is a topic of concern in the world. For achieving the carbon neutrality policy target, the energy transition is happening all over the world, when the power generation mix will be replaced by clean energy with carbon reduction effects. To estimate the evolution of power generation mix that can adapt to carbon emission reduction in the future, a system dynamics (SD) model is proposed. Firstly, several types of energy sources with coupled carbon impacts are considered, as well as the mathematical correction, which are quantified and modeled in the SD sub-modules. Furthermore, different scenarios are designed to test SD models and numerical results are simulated and analyzed, as well as the extended cases for 2030 carbon peak scenarios.