基于 2000~2020 年南京都市圈的耕地利用投入产出面板数据,采用超效率EBM、标准差椭圆、核密度估计函数和马尔科夫链等方法,对耕地利用效率进行了系统研究.结果表明:(1)2000~2020 年南京都市圈的耕地利用效率总体偏高,但距离有效前沿面仍存在一定的提升空间.其中,南京的耕地利用综合效率稳步提升且数值最高,淮安和扬州的耕地利用综合效率>1,芜湖、马鞍山和宣城的耕地利用综合效率均值未达到有效前沿面.(2)南京都市圈的耕地利用纯技术效率处于较高水平,规模效率处于较低水平,从未达到有效前沿面.(3)南京都市圈耕地利用效率分布呈现偏"东北—西南"格局,且具有向东北方向偏移趋势.耕地利用效率重心集中于南京市,并呈现"西南—东北—西南"方向的阶段性转移.(4)南京都市圈的耕地利用效率一直存在明显的两极分化,不同地级市之间耕地利用效率绝对差值随着时间的推移扩大,应重点提高低值区域耕地利用效率.(5)从长期看,南京都市圈内耕地利用效率呈现出向下减少趋势,且各状态间的内部流动性比较小,保持原有状态的可能性较大.提出因地制宜,因城施策;加强地市间相互联系,促进资源优化配置;控制碳排放,促进耕地的低碳利用;加强农业科技创新力度的对策建议.
Based on the input-output panel data of cultivated land utilization in Nanjing metropolitan area from 2000 to 2020,a systematic study was conducted on cultivated land utilization efficiency using methods such as super efficiency EBM,standard deviation ellipse,kernel density estimation function,and Markov chain.The re-sults indicated that from 2000 to 2020,the overall efficiency of cultivated land utilization in Nanjing metropoli-tan area was relatively high,but there was still some room for improvement from the effective frontier.Among them,the comprehensive efficiency of cultivated land utilization in Nanjing had steadily improved and had the highest value.The comprehensive efficiency of cultivated land utilization in Huai'an and Yangzhou was greater than 1,while the average comprehensive efficiency of cultivated land utilization in Wuhu,Ma'anshan,and Xuancheng had not reached the effective frontier.(2)The pure technical efficiency of cultivated land utiliza-tion in Nanjing metropolitan area was at a high level,while the scale efficiency was at a low level,and had never reached an effective frontier.(3)The distri-bution of cultivated land utilization efficiency in Nanjing metropolitan area showed a'northeast-south-west'pattern,and had a tendency to shift towards the northeast.The focus of cultivated land utilization efficiency was concentrated in Nanjing City and showed a phased shift in the direction of'southwest-northeast-southwest'.(4)The cultivated land uti-lization efficiency in Nanjing metropolitan area had been significantly polarized,and the absolute differ-ence in cultivated land utilization efficiency among different prefecture-level cities expanded over time.There-fore,it was necessary to focus on improving the cultivated land utilization efficiency in low value areas.(5)In the long run,the cultivated land utilization efficiency in Nanjing metropolitan area showed a downward trend,and the internal mobility among different states was relatively small,making it more likely to maintain the original state.The suggestions were proposed inclduing adapting measures to local conditions and implement-ing policies based on the city,strengthen the interconnection between cities and promoting the optimal alloca-tion of resources,controlling carbon emissions and promoting low-carbon utilization of cultivated land,and strengthening the innovation of agricultural technology.